The holidays of The National Foundation Day of China was over for 8 days off from October 1st to 8th and the container factories have begun to operate from Monday, October 9 in China. During the holiday period container production had been stopped so that a backlog and additional production will be accelerated from now on. It would also become the index to tell future container demand. The current number of the new container factory stock in China would be 412,000TEU level. It is said that the container price would be $2,200~2,400 per 20f. A certain major leasing company has already ordered more than 500,000TEU this year. There has been no precedent in the past that one leasing company placed an order for containers over 500,000TEU in single year.
There are some reasons to be possibly thought about. One reason is that they could foresee that rise of an iron price would cause container price up. Another reason is they will have to grow their fleet by using the investment fund to meet their investor’s requirement. When other major leasing companies have been hesitating to order the new containers because they had been suffered large loss by Hanjin Shipping Line’s bankruptcy or each company’s own financial reason they must be aiming at gaining the superiority over others by the speculative mass ordering of the new containers in preparation for the current steady but unpredictable and sudden container demand in the future. Of course it is not only a reason. I think that their decision must be based on their thoughtful analysis to movement of the world economy.
A shipping company is no exception. The ordering of the new supersized ship of 22,000TEU type which stopped from late 2015 seems to have reopened. European ship companies are aggressive in particular. In early September CMA-CGM placed an order for 9 x 22,000 TEU type ships, and in late September MSC placed an order for 11×22,000 TEU type ships. It is all delivery from 2019 through 2020. Is it ordering in anticipation of expansion of the world economy? I must keep an eye sequentially on European shipping lines.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) predicts that major countries (45 countries) all of 2017 become the positive growth. It happens for 10 years since year of the Lehman shock, 2008. The United States and China could continuously act a play of the leader of the world economy. Recovery of the Southern Europe economy of Italy, Spain including Greece which became the positive growth for three years. The recovery of Europe is vividly clear. The developing nations such as Russia, Brazil have shown recovery of economy too. On the other hand the OECD anticipates a world economy growth rate of 2017 to be 3.5%. Plant investment is 3.2% increase compared with the previous year in the whole member nation. Trade increases by 4.4% which exceeds the economic growth rate. Does the light to escape from slump time for the past 10 years appear to the world economy?
The Japanese home-appliance makers of the 1970s have no rivals in the world. The Japanese semiconductor makers of the 1980s were proud of No. 1 in the world. In a Plaza Agreement of September, 1985, Yen became strong, and the Japanese yen went up from the 240 yen level to half 120 yen level in 1988. As a result the overseas production ratio of the manufacturing industry was 3% of 1985 but it increased to 18% in 2009. The excellent engineers had been forced to move to overseas in the process and the advanced technology was consequently outflowed to overseas. The major home electric appliances manufacturers and IT makers were generous and hardly forgot their past success experience. They could neglect local marketing in development of products. Symbolizing by a smartphone they have been protected by the regulation and having pursued the complicated function of a smartphone, which have caused to have left them far behind the level of world competition. The Japanese major company should look straight at the reality.
On the other hand, the disgraceful affair of the Japanese leading companies have been continuing these days. I would like to pick up some of them which the newspapers focused on.
2011 Olympus – window-dressing accounts
2014 Takata – malfunction of the airbag
2015 Toyo Tire & Rubber – data camouflage for earthquake-proof
The subsidiary of Asahi Chemical Industry – pile driving manipulation
Toshiba – dilution account
2016 Mitsubishi Motors – concealment of 2 times of recall and mileage data manipulation
Suzuki Motors – unjust measurement of the mileage data
2017 Nissan Motor – unqualified person of completion, documents camouflage
Kobe Steel – Performance data manipulation of the material made by aluminum
Not all Japanese leading companies have been suffering from such problem but the companies which caused a disgraceful affair might have lost the sight of their position with the unsociable management system, self-satisfaction, self-overconfidence, egocentrism, exclusionism, old organization constitution, vertical structure society, etc in the long company history as it may be boundless if I may put it up all. In order for Japanese companies to survive in severe competition with the global companies of the world. There should be enough to have 4 layers of the instruction system from the top to bottom, such as President, Vice President, Director and a person in charge if I could quote the system of Europe and America. Some authority should be left to a small but highly skilled work forces. It will consequently ensure staff share necessary information each other and make themselves understand what to do the best. In addition, it is necessary to horizontally make good communication better as much as the companies grow big. I think it is inevitable for Japanese companies to abandon the past success experience and get rid of bonds of business in the good old days and set up the organization horizontally to communicate well.