A cold day is continuing for a few days recently. So I am longing for spring when it comes. However, I am happy to know that spring is just around the corner when I notice on my way to the station every morning that the row of cherry blossom trees changes into light pinkness.
US President Trump made a speech in a US assemble of Feb 28 that he will invest 1 trillion dollars (approximately 113 trillion yen) and will lower a corporate tax rate and will carry out a large-scale reduction of taxes for the middle class. His public commitment would give activation of the economy and getting out job creation of the United States and after all impact on the world economy is immeasurable. The American stocks of the next day ended $21,115.55 which was $303 higher than the day before. It hit a record high. The U.S. Department of Labor announced on March 10 that February employment statistics improved that the number of the employees of the non-agriculture section increased 235,000 compared with the month before and the unemployment rate improved 4.7% (0.1% decrease compared with the month before). A rise in interest rates in March by the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) come on reality. As a result, the Nikkei Stock Average of March 10 renewed a high price since December 7, 2015 and acquired 19,604 yen. On the other hand, Japanese yen fell to the $ 1.00 = 115 yen level.
On March 5 the Chinese prime minister, Li Keqiang sets economic growth rate target of 2017 around 6.5% in National People’s Congress of China. Reduction of taxes was enforced 570 billion yuan (approximately 9,454 billion yen) in 2016 and in addition, China will continuously carry out a reduction of taxes of 350 billion yuan (approximately 5,800 billion yen) in 2017. They throw their energy into financial stimulus sequentially targeting manufacturing industry, a medium and small-sized business in order to reduce their burden. On the other hand, Guangdong Province will give up a minimum wages increase of the manufacturing industry in 2017. The restraint of minimum wages is spreading in the whole land of China. This aims at a brake of the factory transfer from China which becomes high in labor costs of the manufacturing industry to Southeast Asia.
Asian Development Bank (ADB) pointed out in the end of February there will be infrastructure demand of 26 trillion dollars (approximately 3 quadrillion yen) for 15 years from 2016 through 2030 in Asia. Economic growth of 45 countries and areas of China, East Asia, Southeast Asia, Southern Asia continues but there are the present conditions that investment does not catch up with for infrastructure demand of these countries and areas. A fund begins flowing back to a rising nation stock. The world stocks aggregate market value approaches to a record high, too. There is expectation of the expansion of the world economy in the background.
According to the trade paper cargo movement didn’t grow much but the freight rate seems to be stable in February in effect of the decrease of the number of ships in service. Is the main reason due for the result of decrease of depot stock of leasing companies in China and Asia countries? Has the freight rate raise been caused by less empty containers of shipping lines back to demand places such as China and Asia from N. America and Europe? When containers run short the shipping lines will depend on the leasing companies to fill the gap. Bankruptcy of Hanjin Shippng seems to have still caused disorder in controlling the inventory among shipping lines. Besides, shipping lines should reduce the number of empty containers back to China and Asia from North America and Europe because export ex China and Asia to North America and Europe usually decrease in the winter time. However, bankruptcy of Hanjin Shipping should cause difficulty in empty positioning from North America and Europe to China and Asia more than expected so that it is the present situation that shipping lines have to lease depot containers from leasing companies in China and Asia these days. It is the best proof that shipping companies have been accepting the raise of the master lease rate and improving leasing condition positively to secure the depot containers from leasing companies in China and Asia. It is a bright sign to leasing companies. It might be a trigger for leasing companies to stop sterile long-term lease rate competition? Anyway, containers shortage would prevent shipping lines from a freight rate fall to some extent so we eagerly wish the shipping company could attain a freight rate restoration by SC negotiations to begin from March onward.
The current new container price is $2,150 per 20f for solvent system paint and $2,275 per 20f for water paint. New container factory stock in China is less than 550,000 TEU now. It is for certain that most of new container stock in China factories could occupy containers which leasing companies made rush order before the price of water paint container would raise. It is possible that total number of new production in China except China’s southern district would temporarily decrease to change their production lines from solvent system paint to water paint. It is expected that lack of container occurs until factory productive capacity returns to a normal scale. If shipping lines could not succeed in empty containers back to China and Asia from North America and Europe the seller’s market of the container leasing companies would continue for a while. It is important for leasing companies to win their reliability after April onward how leasing companies could help shipping lines under severe container shortage situation.