I always feel solemn before greeting the New Year. The days of the New Year are repetition of yesterday, today and tomorrow. I hardly remember when I do but now I still do like I get up from the bed while feeling dim tensions when I wake in the morning. And the priority list of what I must do for the day in the company is already set up in my mind when I leave the house.
My tension usually increases when I greet the New Year because the whole year’s plans should be made on New Year’s Day. My solemn feeling of reflection for the old year and to make the New Year resolution have not changed for dozens of years. It is my creed that solution is not always provided if we do not think. It does not come true when we do not expect it.
It was January 4 that we started the first day of the work this year. The mood of enjoying the New Year was not easy to get rid of but it was not tough due to short period of holidays while there seem to be many companies who started on January 5. This year is Year of the Monkey. If we describe it in detail like this year in the thirty-third of the sexagenary cycles when I say in the sexagenary cycle. It is a year of a change, the turbulence.
As if symbolize it, the beginning of the year (first session of the New Year) of the Nikkei Stock Average recorded 3 years consecutive falls. The stock prices did not stop to fall and lowered 1,335 yen in five days from Jan. 4th to 8th. The closing price was 17,697 yen. The yen of the New York foreign exchange market of 8th had kept on rising for 6 days. It was $1.00=JPY117.20~30 in strong yen, the weak dollar of $1.00=JPY 0.45 compared with the day before. The Nikkei Shimbun reported that it was a result that speculation money prefer the safe Japanese yen.
On the other hand, the world movement was busy, too. On January 2nd Saudi Arabia executed 47 religious leaders of the Islam Shiah. An Iranian crowd attacked the Saudi Arabia Embassy of Teheran against it. As a result, Saudi Arabia broke off diplomacy with Iran on Jan. 3rd. Bahrain, Sudan, Somalia decided to break off diplomatic relations with Iran. Iran announced that an Iranian embassy in capital Sana’a, Yemen received the aerial bombardment by the Saudi Arabia air-force plane on Jan.7th. The Middle East has been deepening more confusion.
On Jan. 6th nuclear test by North Korea and movement to the sanction in the United Nations Security Council for it. Weak Chinese Yuan against US dollar from the end of the last year didn’t stop. As a result, uneasiness for the future of the China’s economy has given unrest in the world stock market and it has caused world simultaneous falling stock prices. WTI, Crude-oil futures index of the U.S. market posted 32.1 dollars per barrel on Jan. 7th, which was less than 32.4 dollars at the time of the Lehman shock of 2008. It is the low price for 12 years.
The U.S. Department of Labor announced employment statistics of December, 2015 on Jan. 8th that the number of the employers of the non-agriculture section became 292,000 increase in comparison with the last month. It exceeded 200,000 people indicating the job growth for 3 consecutive months. The unemployment rate is 5.0%. New car sale of 2015 in the United States grew 5.7% and became record-high 17,470,000. The economy in the United States is firm in tone. Therefore, the decision of the rise in interest rates by Federal Reserve Board (FRB) in the middle of December of the last year at the first time for 9 and a half years must be justified. Rises in interest seems to be expected around four times a year this year. A part of factors of a feeling of Chinese Yuan’s lower profile for future months and lower crude oil should depend on decision on a rise in interest rates made by FRB to some extent. A large amount of investment money become careful about high-risk asset use. Therefore it is considered that financing becomes difficult in the company which financial affairs are weak.
There are 331 waiting containerships at the end of December 2015 with the slot capacity of 1,359,400TEU, which increased 5 times higher compared with the previous year. The shipping lines will continue suspension measures for demand decrease after Chinese New Year. The trade newspaper, “Shipping Guide” quoted the article of French company of “AXS-Alphaliner”. Each Shipping line has been endeavoring to reduce the number of containerships. Shipping lines carried out large-scale freight rate restoration from this year in the main service routes like North America, Europe, Middle East, Australia and South America in 2016. “Daily Cargo”, the trade newspaper reports on Jan. 6 that freight rates have been suddenly increasing in various trade routes. I sincerely request each shipping line to make the best of this opportunity and all shipping lines could stop sterile freight rate completion. Our business could not exist without shipping lines and leasing companies. Therefore, I really wish the shipping line and leasing company to regain confidence once again.
There are the 4 mega alliance systems such as 2M (Maersk, MSC), O3 (CMA-CGM, UASC, China Shipping), G6 (NYK, MOL, Hapag-Lloyd, OOCL, APL, Hyundai), CKYHE (COSCO, K Line, Yang Ming, Hanjin, Evergreen). However, the member of each alliance should be reshuffled based on CMA-CGM to purchase NOL/APL, a merger of COSCO and China Shipping because APL currently belongs to G6, China Shipping is a member of O3, COSCO is for CKYHE. Meantime, APL declared to join to O3, China Shipping will withdraw from liner business. Thus, the movement of COSCO should be attracted attention at present. The shipping line collection in China has continuously been carried on and the merge between No. 3rd shipping line in China (Sinotrans & CSC) and No.4th shipping line (China Merchants) has been decided in the end of the last year.
The current new production price is $1,450 per 20f, which would fall down approaching to the historical lowest price. So container price seems to be approaching to the bottom of the price even if container steel materials are cheap. Probably because all could foresee it the number of total new containers in factories in China has increased to close to 2 million TEU at present. Shipping lines and leasing companies who have enough money to keep buying the new containers because of cheap price.
My first dream on January 1 of New Year of 2016 was that I was pleased with all the staff late 2016 for having achieved sales of the double of 2015. One of sales staff was delighted that “We did it!” , “ We did it!” but he was complaining at the beginning of the year “It is difficult for us to attain sales of the double of 2015 even if we attained sales of the double of 2014 in 2015!” “That is why I tried to tell you!”, “If all staff make up their mind to achieve the double sales seriously, we can do it!” “ We can do it if we think so.” There was myself who appealed for it to our staff. Therefore, I would like to work harder in 2016 together with our staff as my dream comes true.