TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership) consisting of 12 countries has finally reached an agreement on Oct. 5. It took 5 and a half years. However, when domestic procedures such as the assembly approval were not finished within two years from an agreement. TPP will be automatically effective if the total GDP of participating 12 countries accounts for more than 85%, and more than in six countries have to agree. Therefore, ratification of the United States and Japan is absolutely indispensable. Participating countries are 12 such as Japan, United States, Canada, Australia, Mexico, Peru, Chile, New Zealand, Brunei, Singapore, Malaysia and Vietnamese. The total GDP of 12 countries 3,100 trillion yen (approximately 26 trillion dollars). The world’s largest economic zone. The liberalization rate to get rid of a duty reaches approximately 95%.
Comparison of TPP country by GDP
| Participating country | GDP composition ratio | |||
| The United States | 60.4% | |||
| Japan | 17.7% | |||
| Canada | 6.6% | |||
| Australia | 5.4% | |||
| Mexico | 4.5% | |||
| Other seven countries | 5.4% | |||
| The total | 100% | |||
It will be agriculture and forestry fisheries product to be highly concerned for Japan in particular. Approximately 440 items of duties are abolished in 834 items. Certain items lose a duty immediately with effect, but the items of the longest duration will be abolished after 16 years. Therefore, I believe that this is why the reproduction time for Japanese agriculture has still been left. I want that revival of Japan agriculture should be realized with the vigor, which could make young people feel charm. On the other hand, as for the industrial articles such as the cars which are a strong field of Japan, a duty disappears with 99.9% of items. We should appreciate the participating countries to have accepted this. TPP has been aiming at supporting prosperity of each countries by bring about a high economic value through the fair and free competition. Therefore, Japan has responsibility to support other participants to develop themselves by enjoying the profit, vitality each other. On the other hand Japan will need external pressure because she is very difficult to reform it by herself. It is very difficult to move forward a Japanese of inner direction DNA strengthened by a policy of seclusion of the Edo Shogunate for 260 years. Therefore, I do expect Japanese youth to pay more attention to go abroad positively not to miss this business chance.
Comparison of the Scale of the Major Economic Zones in the World
| Participating country | GDP composition ratio | Participating countries | Population |
| TPP | 36.3% | 12 | 810 million |
| NAFTA | 26.5% | 2 | 470 million |
| EU | 23.9% | 28 | 500 million |
| ASEAN | 3.2% | 10 | 620 million |
| Total | 89.9% | 53 | 2,400 million |
TPP must to be a flow to grope for world change in new order based on freedom, fairness to defeat a feeling of a kind of confinement covering the world now. TPP would give new breath for the world economy, and new companies, various companies could be provided the place where they could play an active part. Physical distribution of cargo movement in the world would change with this.
As for the economic development, the movement of people and cargo are indispensable. Shipping companies, distribution companies and container leasing companies could secure more business chances if they would aggressively take an advantage of this opportunity after duty abolition and new distribution routes. It is inevitable for us to aggressively take a positive stance of catching the flow, not a stance of the waiting. We should spare no effort in doing so in long term viewpoint. TPP will give us a big business chance in this sense if we try to tackle it with positive posture.
The shipping companies seemed to have managed their containerships ex China/Asia with full of cargo volume in September of peak season of the year as usual. However, it did not lead them to a new additional lease because they could fortunately manage it with on-use fleet. As a result, they seemed to have delayed to pick up L/T they had fixed early year and seemed to have left most of their own new productions in the factories. The current new production price is less than $1,600 per 20f. It is the present situation that Chinese makers have stopped their production or adjusting their production as per actual order. The total of new containers in China seems to be less than 1.4 million TEU.
Export of number of used car in August in Japan recorded 95,115, up 1.9% from the same month a year ago. It is the increase for the first time in six months. The total recorded 835,714 for from January to August. 1.1% increases compared with the previous fiscal year. Did the weak yen contribute to this?
The number of Used Car Export ex Japan (from January to August in total)
| Order | Export country | Number | The increase and decrease (compared with the previous fiscal year) |
| No.1 | UAE | 9.245 | +48.3% |
| No.2 | Myanmar | 8.316 | -35.0% |
| No.3 | Newzealand | 8.039 | +1.6% |
| No.4 | Kenya | 6.763 | +15.6% |
| No.5 | SriLanka | 5.698 | +119.7% |
| No.6 | Pakistan | 3.966 | +50.0% |
| No.7 | Russia | 3.926 | -66.5% |
| No.8 | Philippines | 2.911 | +50.0% |
| No.9 | Bangladesh | 2.393 | +50.0% |
| No.10 | Mozambique | 1.462 | -18.1% |
The demand for used 40f HC containers in Japan has been steady. Did used car export increase affect to this? Demand for approximately 4,200 40fHC is in one month if 20% of the total export of used cars should be exported with the used containers. Both shipping companies and leasing companies have been already proceeding to replace old containers with the new containers in their fleet to great extent. On the other hand there is the mismatch by the places.
It would be a future issue how shipping lines and leasing companies could bring used containers for sale into demand places. In Japan each leasing company has been increasing the depot stock by return from shipping lines but the number of used containers for sale are limited. It is necessary to bring used containers for sale into Japan from the foreign countries to meet demand in Japan. However, Japan demand should be subject to timing, places, type/size of container and so on. On the other hand, to keep old containers for sale as stock is quite risky because operation costs in Japan are very expensive if we have to keep them for long period of time in the depot. It is our duty as Trader to undertake such risk.
Kukdong MES (JJ MES called in China), Korean company which EFI acts as their agent in Japan have been attaining the black figure every year with considerably high rate of return since the opening of their business. Many people of major banks, finance relations come to see me to hear a story about container business. I would roughly explain that shipping lines had been for a good investment till the year of 2000 and after that leasing companies took over position of good investment till Lehman shock. Thereafter, I tell them that it is the time of Trader from now on. I am now recommending them to seriously consider investment to Traders that have mainly been dealing with the used containers of over 10 year old from shipping lines and leasing companies as they could become a good investment in future. The business of shipping lines and leasing companies could not make ends meet without Traders. Some shipping lines and leasing companies have their own companies to dispose of their used containers but have not fully been successful yet. I think the neutral Trader as 3rd party would be required from now on. I think that the buying and selling of the used container increases at every place of the whole world. I am extremely happy if EF International could participate in supporting shipping lines and leasing companies.