According to the trade statistic of August in China published on Sep.8 export decreases 5.5%, compared with the previous fiscal year, which was straight for 2 months less than the previous year. Import decreases 13.8% which is less than the previous year for 10 months in a row. The volume of trade decreases 9.1% which reduced for 6 months on end. The trade balance records the black of $60,200 million. Export from Jan to Aug decreased by 1.4% over last year. Import decreased by 14.5% over last year. The volume of trade reduced 7.5%. As a result, the targeted value about 6% of trade growth is doubtful. Chinese government lowered yuan by 4.5% in 3 days from Aug 11 to put the brakes on slowdown in economy. This devaluation would be aimed at activation of the domestic economy but its effectiveness would be doubted. However, this sudden yuan devaluation gave distrust of the real economy in China, uneasiness to currency depreciation competition in the world. Southeastern Asia 5 counties (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippine, Singapore, Thailand) which export dependence to China is particularly high are concerned in particular about a vicious circle of the slowdown of the domestic spending by the export slump. Japan is not exceptional. The drop of the export power of Japan and the decrease of the visit to Japan tourist, influence on domestic economy by the purchasing power drop. Asia is in the situation to catch cold when China coughs. Linking with the issue of rise in interest rates of the United States the abnormality of the China’s economy may cause some possibility of intensifying recurrence of the world investment money more in the United States.
In the meantime, the explosion accident occurred early morning of Aug. 12 in Tianjin Port and caused by an artificial mistake brought casualties of over 150 people including missing and the influence that an explosion accident gives to a China’s economy is big. The Tianjin Port accounts for 80% of the coke for steel manufacture, 30% of steel materials in whole export of China and occupies for 40% of cars, 20% of ethylene and the wheat respectively, 10% of the iron ore in whole import of China. The Tianjin Port is the North China’s greatest trade port. Several thousand new cars were damaged in this accident. It is reported that the amount of loss of the accident amounts to 1,300 billion Japanese yen. The amount of insurance compensation of the explosion accident is estimated at 5 billion ~ 10 billion yuan and is said to be a record high in one accident in China.
Tianjin port is ranked at No. 10 in the world. The traffic of the half term of this year is 7,242,300teu. It is the major container port which is big to the sixth in China where containers more than 1.2 million teu per month in an average go in and out of.
10 Major Container Ports in the world
| Ranking | Port | Result (teu) | vs last year |
| No. 1 | Shanghai | 18,022,000 | 4.4 |
| No. 2 | Singapore | 16,806,000 | -3.1 |
| No. 3 | Shenzhen | 11,575,600 | 5.4 |
| No. 4 | Ningbo | 10,465,800 | 9.1 |
| No. 5 | Hong Kong | 10,116,000 | -9.7 |
| No. 6 | Busan | 9,683,855 | 5 |
| No. 7 | Qingdao | 8,592,100 | 2.7 |
| No. 8 | Guangzhou | 8,199,800 | 6.1 |
| No. 9 | Dubai | 7,881,000 | 6 |
| No. 10 | Tianjin | 7,242,300 | 5 |
There is a lot of influence that an explosion accident of the Tianjin Port gives in the shipping company. After an accident, containerships have to skip Tianjin Port and containers with Tianjin cargo must be discharged to the other ports. The handling costs must be expensive. It must have caused the persons in charge of the inventory control of shipping line lots of trouble for grasping the whole picture of the situation like how many containers are involved in the accident scene, how many on board container for Tianjin are and how many containers with cargo for Tianjin at the loading ports are.
Singamas, No. 2 container maker in the world has container storage capacity of 8,000teu near the explosion site, which was suffered big damage. Container leasing companies had considerable container stock in Tianjin Port. Therefore, they should have also sustained certain loss by the accident. On the other hand this difficult situation will bring a chance to leasing companies. Shipping companies will have to obtain the number of containers in need in the future. If they could not manage with their in-fleet they will have to come to leasing companies. Therefore, leasing companies will have to stay close with shipping lines’ demand of when and where they may need.
The trade papers inform that the number of waiting containerships has become the largest with 175 ships, 484,000teu in the end of August. Waiting large-scale containerships increase due to inactive trade between Asia and Europe. Shipping lines have been tiding over by decreasing the number of containerships in the routes for the time being. It is considered that waiting containerships will increase more because decrease of the number of ships in the service routes and stoppage of some ships will be expected after October. On the other hand, total dismantling of containerships from Jan to Aug this year have been reduced to 95,000teu, 54 ships, a mean model of ship of 1,765teu, a mean age of ship of 23 years in comparison with the same period of the last year like total dismantling of containerships of 323,000teu, 130 ships, a mean model of ship of 2,505teu, a mean age of ship of 22 years. This has been caused by a scrap price fell and chartered ship charges soared by 30% this year.
Maersk Line, No.1 container line in the world revised their world container demand prospect of 2015 downward to 2~4% from 3~5%. Their achievements in 2nd quarter reduced in profits, but secured the profit more than 500 million dollars. Handling container volume recorded 4% increase from a year earlier. They have cooperated with MSC, No. 2 largest in the world from this year on East-West routes. The world share of both companies accounts for a little less than 30%. Movement of this 2M attracts attention sequentially.
The present new container price falls to $1,600 per 20f. The factory stock of the new container seems to have piled up close to 1.5 Million teu. Chinese four major container makers have been discussing about price maintenance how to stop a price fall.
Cheap Chinese steel material has swept over the world and steel product price fell down 40% in Asia in one year. The future new container price will depend on how seriously Chinese steel makers could adjust their production to actual demand.
It is said that there is 2 million teu including depot containers in the whole China. Sept is one of the strongest leasing demand month in the year to the leasing companies.
However, container demand like usual year has not yet been seen in a market even if it is already the middle of September. There is the National Foundation Day of China from Oct 1 to 7 when it will be 7 consecutive holidays in China. Is there demand rush before it? I wish to pray for demand rush over coming late September.