Container Market Report January 2013

It was 16 degree C on Dec. 16(Sun) in Yokohama city which is 5 degree C higher than the average temperature of 10~11 degree C in the previous week. It was the best day for sport. One hour passed since playing tennis. I felt that the ball might hit on the calf of my leg after I returned the ball in rally. At the same time I felt that the thick rubber band was snapped in my body and the end of the rubber band hit to the top of the ceiling of my head which made a sound like “Pop!” I realized that my Achilles’ tendon was ruptured. I thought I had enough a warm-up harder than anybody else. As I feared there was the hollow of 2cm in length on an Achilles’ tendon. It reminded me of a torn of muscle in my left calf in tennis 15 years ago. I had to have put a cast on my leg for 3 weeks because I misunderstood that it was just muscular pain and I gave wrong treatment, warming and massage, by myself without meeting a medical doctor. It would have taken long to heal it. I learnt how awful the result was in case of wrong self-judgment.

It was quite surprising to see that there were many outpatients in an emergency hospital on Sunday. I fortunately could have an operation on the next day, Dec.17 (Mon). I could return home after one hour operation with local anesthesia. During the operation, all conversation between a doctor and nurses reached my ears. The nurses kept talking to me in order to ease my fear which I had strongly felt even at my age before and during operation, which encouraged me a lot and got relief from it. That was a professional; I was convinced that these professionals have been supporting our society as hard as they can.

I attended with a pair of crutches the annual meeting of our partner company held in Seoul from Dec.27 to 29. Thanks to ANA (All Nippon Airways), my economy seat was upgraded to the business one. It was the first time for me to go through the departure and entry formalities in the wheel chair and finished all with priority. It was deeply impressive to see a Korean man on ground duty without jacket to willingly stay with us in the temperature of minus 13 degree C outside till the taxi stand for about 20 minutes. In addition, young men of a partner company carried me on his back to go up and down the stairs to the restaurant. At the beginning I hesitated to attend the meeting but it reminded me of kindness of Korean young people and I have learnt subtleties of human nature which I could not pay much attention if I am physically strong.

I went abroad 7 times in 2012 and visited 10 countries in total. I could have been totally exhausted in Dec.2012 after visiting China right after coming back from Intermodal show in Amsterdam for a week trip. I have to admit that I am not young. However, I would like to go abroad soon after healing my leg.

The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has come to power. There is somewhat expectation among people in general that business may be recovering soon. Business is subject to the mood? The exchange rate between Yen and Dollar has been lowered over JPY11 to $1.00=JPY89.04 as of Jan. 11 2013 comparing with $1.00=JPY77.66 as of Jun.1, 2012. Export from Japan would be revived under the situation of $1.00=JPY89.04? Japan should have done more in the strong Yen?

Chinese New Year is from Feb.9 (Sat.) to 16 (Sat.) this year. So the year end cargo rush would be anticipated. As a result the freight rate for the liner is raising at present. On top of that the freight rate for bulk is also in uptrend by importing the raw material for the public construction to expand domestic demand after Chinese New Year. However, in 2013 the number of 280 new container ships with over 1.8 million teu will enter into the market. In 2012 there were 205 new container ships with 1.255 million teu were put in service. 100,000 teu would have been absorbed by the slow speed policy. However, total number of ships has come to increase 6% in 2012. The slow speed policy would limit to the number of containers to be absorbed even if it is applied to this year as well.

The shipping companies could save the operation cost with the larger ships on the one hand but the competition by the larger ships would choke themselves to death. Nobody could be the only winner in shipping business. Shipping lines formed the alliance to minimize the risk. However, there must be a right ship size and the scale of number of ships to operate and to meet the demand of the times. The next step is to operate containers jointly among Alliance to reduce the operation cost in Alliance? It is like “Eurobridge” which was the joint container operation company set up in the late of 1980s by ScanDutch, one of the consortiums which consisted of the number of European shipping lines at that time. They were dissolved at the same time when ScanDutch was broken up. I am positively sure that they had led the van of the times. Container acquisition, control of leasing containers and management of proper container cost could be carried by Alliance. It should be possible to be managed more appropriately than before because of the more advanced computer system of the day.

Negotiation between ILA and USMX has been extended again by Feb.6. Shipping lines could be pressed to deploy containers in demand places if strike happen. Under the largest number of new containers, the slow speed policy, the situation of shipping lines to build few own containers many shipping lines have to rely further on the leasing companies. Leasing companies have been ordering containers from Chinese makers and shipping lines seem to rush to secure L/T containers at the bottom price. The current new container price would be around $2,300 per 20f. The raise in container price would not be avoided in 2nd quarter of this year?

EFI has been nominated by UES International (HK) Holding Ltd (UES) who is the middle scale of leasing company as their agent in Japan. We could support not only the customers having demand in Japan but the shipping lines who have transferred their liner headquarter to overseas like NYK, K Line in Singapore, MOL in Hong Kong and Kambara Kisen in Shanghai. The leasing companies have been in bipolarization such as 2 million teu leasing companies and less than 1 million teu ones. UES is the 12th ranking in the fleet size in the world.

The strong sales points for UES are 1) to lease various type/size of container and 2) to handle even small volume which would give UES effective advantage because the major leasing companies would not like 3) to use the sales agent like EFI in the world which gives UES reduce the operation cost which would be quite competitive comparing with the major leasing companies who have their own offices which will cost them year after year. Any way we would like to expect UES to grow the leasing company whom many shipping lines will rely on and to make them happy by offering the subtle and warm-hearted service which the existing leasing companies could not offer. We are happy to work for UES as we could engage in container leasing business.