Container market Report May 2011

In May the fresh green is dazzling the eyes. It is the most powerful month of nature in the year. This beautiful strength of nature must have belatedly come to the Tohoku Region. Japanese have accepted nature itself and have lived with nature. We consider we are a part of them. Nature of the four seasons has made Japanese feel like that and such Japanese DNA has been made for thousands of years. However, it has made us realize that Japan is the earthquake country and such mega earthquake and Tsunami may hit us at any moment. The destructive power of nature would be unimaginable. It is wrong that the human being could control nature.
The Fukushima nuclear power plants would not be controllable yet. The radioactive leakage from Fukushima nuclear power plants have caused the neighboring counties the serious trouble. We cannot abandon Japan. We have been responsible for this problem. The nuclear power may be the ideal energy which the human being found. However, Japan is the earthquake country where 10% of the world earthquakes occurs in Japan. Thus, the nuclear power plant doesn’t fit to Japan. There are over 50 nuclear power plants in operation at present. Disposal of radioactive waste has become a big problem every year. Mr. Kan of The Prime Minister of Japan has decided to stop Hamaoka nuclear power plant in Shizuoka where it is said that the probability of the earthquake registering 6 on the Japanese seismic scale would occur within 30 years. I would like to support his daring decision.
As a result, it is expected that the electric power supply would run short of 7~10% at the peak season in summer in the disaster-stricken area and Tokyo. The Government equally requested all companies and households in those areas to save electricity of 15%. All companies and households are cooperative. In order to avoid stopping operation due to an electric power shortage in summer each company has been voluntarily carrying out one hour earlier of the starting time for a factory, minimizing a light in the offices, factories and the seasonal change of clothing has been enforced from May which is usually changed from every June throughout the country. In addition without a tie applied. Some factories have been in operation during the gold week of holiday season in May. On the contrary they will close the factories in summer. Some to buy the power-generation facilities of their own for self-defence. LED lights have been adopted by most of the convenience stores. The department stores with dark lighting. The number of the operating trains has been reduced and limiting to operating escalators in the railway stations. Many families try to buy an energy-saving home appliances. This would symbolize how much Japanese are cooperative.
On the contrary the action of Government is slow. On the one hand they could not bring the effective policies into operation timely and seems to leave it to people. On the other hand they have been proceeding to remove and to dispose an enormous quantity of automobiles and ships changed as waste after confirming one by one with the owner. A huge heap of wreckage including cars, ships etc which was reported to be piled up for 16 years of ordinary waste produced in those areas should be swiftly disposed. It has already passed two months but no touched at all. I could not help feeling impatient at seeing them. The prompt political decision and action should request Japanese government. Their quick decision for an impending crises should require them in negotiation of international issues with foreign countries.
The market capitalization of the world stock value as of the end of April, 2011 seems to have been already recovered by over 20% of the world stock value of right before the Lehman Shock. Japan stock market was also recorded temporarily \10,000 level by the investment money from overseas but it is moving around \9,700 level at present.
The recovery of the disaster-stricken area is the key to Japan for her revitalization. It would depend on the political decision. The rise and fall of the country is destined by government of the time. There have been many Japanese corporations successful in the world. If they show in red figure the management is reshuffled. They have been contributing to Japan by racking their brains for survival. Japanese politicians should stop inward-looking and then try to exert a favorable influence upon the world. Otherwise, they could be inexcusable for doing nothing for the companies competing in the world.
The summary report of container ship department of NYK, MOL, K Line is as follows as the end of March of the fiscal year of 2011.

Fiscal year of 2011 Fiscal year of 2012 (forecast)
Annual sales +/-% Recurring profit Annual sales +/-% Recurring profit
NYK 4,621 22% 302 4,850 5.00% 50
MOL 5,866 26% 398 6,200 5.70% 220
K Line 4,450 22% 290 4,800 7.90% 0

Remark; figures per a hundred million yen Fiscal year of 2011 was contributed by strong yen, raise of the fuel costs in favorable cargo export ex Asia and recovery of the freight rate.
Fiscal year of 2012 in forecast will be reduced the profit due to drop in freight rate, rise of fuel cost, surplus of slot.
The freight rate of Europe trade improved in the past two years has fallen in the fiscal year of 2012 after negotiation of the freight rate (SC) in May due to big increase of the ship slots including the delivery of the mega ships in 2009/2010 postponed. Total 4,989 ships at the end of 2010 (+5% increase from the previous year) and +10% up in the slots. The number of the slot has increased up to 688,000 teu during Jan – May 2011. The slot total of 2011 will be forecasted 1,350,000 teu at the rate of 8.6% of the ship increase.
On the other hand the Euro zone expect at an annualized rate of 3.3% growth in 2011. The powerful northern part of Europe will lead economy of the whole Euro zone and will activate more import and export in the second half of the year. On the other hand the weak US dollar against all currencies might bring more export and would ensure growth of US consumer expenditure.
Export to USA in April, 2011

country Export to USA in April, 2011 vs Mar’11
Japan 50,341 teu (13.1%)
China 621,738 teu +26.9%
Korea 119,567 teu +4.0%
Hong Kong 86,941 teu +9.0%
Taiwan 72,603 teu +1.0%

New Container stock of Chinese makers as of the end of April 2011 is 600,000 teu level, +44% from the previous month. The new container price seems to be lower to $2,850 per 20f due to not fully occupied. The influence of the Earthquake and Tsunami has caused Japanese major carrier the long delay of pick-up of long terms containers which was concluded in the 4th quarter of the last year. The utilization ratio of containers with leasing companies would be still kept high after losing 0.5~1.0%.
2nd hand containers demand (dry and reefer) for recovery of the Earthquake and Tsunami is appearing in Japan. However, there is few available in the market. Everybody try to move from overseas but not enough quantity has been successful. 2nd hand container price in Japan is relatively cheaper than China, Korea so that the number of 2nd hand containers have naturally been less available in Japan. As a result the buyers have to pay more for mismatching cost to cope with their urgent demand.
May performance for 2nd hand containers seems to be inactive but June would be more active. Shipping lines have kept using a fairly large number of old containers because they would hesitate retiring such old containers including the low rate of leasing containers. However, the operation cost including repair charges etc would cost them much. Such massive old containers extended the life by low-cost repair would be returned in 2nd hand container market before long.
It has passed over 40 years since containerization started early 1970s. Container structure never changes as the simple is best. Container specification seems to be improved for easier and safer based on request of actual users. Hybrid Open Top Containers and Sliding Door Containers by Future Box Corporation would represent its movement. Shipping lines could make themselves different from others by adopting such innovative specification containers to satisfy their shippers in higher level and they could have a step ahead of the competition. The shippers would not take much time to become aware of superiority of container. At the beginning of adopting the new thing everybody is always prudent. It is needless to say that shipping lines would resist such movement due to large amount of an initial investment. However, nobody could not stop such wave of change, still less do shipping lines for their high flexibility of footwork.